This is a continuation of last months’ analysis of reasons the coin market is slow right now. Another reason the market is slow is the ever “increasing population” of graded or certified coins. While certification of coins has been a great aspect to the coin business, it has also brought some downfalls. Just because a coin is graded a certain grade by a reputable grading service, does not mean that grade is always accurate. In fact, there have been periods of time when the certification process became very loose. Many of these coins with inferior grades were discounted in dealer to dealer trading and found their way to unsuspecting buyers on the internet. In addition, there are many coins that are graded properly but have poor eye appeal due to undesirable toning or other features.
Consequently, there are many areas of numismatics that have an over-abundance of certified coins in certain grades that are over graded causing a supply of these coins that is much larger than the actual population. For example, let’s say there are 10,000 common date Morgan silver dollars that are certified MS65 but in fact only 8,000 of those are actually properly graded. This would mean there are 25% more of these on the market than should be which causes the supply of “MS65” coins to seem quite high and that eventually brings down the price.
The moral of the story is always buy the coin first and the holder second. As I mentioned in last months’ newsletter, whatever the factors there are for a down market creates great buying opportunities for smart buyers.
In next months’ newsletter I will talk more on “Why Is The Coin Market Soft”